/nUpcoming and Recent Decays and Re-entries - eventually air drag, gravity or retro-fire mean that a spacecraft or satellite is no longer able to stay in orbit. It re-enters the atmosphere to be destroyed or make a safe landing.
Orbital Focus - International Spaceflight Facts and Figures
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Launches and Orbital Operations


Tyneside, UK
2023 Dec 6
Wednesday, Day 340

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Feeling the Heat!

Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.

Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.

NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.


Anticipated Re-entries

Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.

Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz, Shenzhou or Dragon spacecraft returning from space station duties.

Cat No Designation Name
(SpaceTrack)
Predicted
Date UTC
Prediction
Issued UTC
52950    2022-074GCTIM2023 Dec 52023 Nov 30
51800    2022-017AJSTARLINK-36002023 Dec 52023 Dec 1
45208    2020-012AGSTARLINK-12112023 Dec 52023 Dec 6
57419    1998-067VWMAYA-52023 Dec 62023 Nov 30
57996    2023-153FSTARLINK-305432023 Dec 72023 Nov 15
52946    2022-074COBJECT C2023 Dec 72023 Dec 5
45382    2020-019YSTARLINK-12642023 Dec 72023 Dec 5
45213    2020-012AMSTARLINK-12322023 Dec 82023 Nov 30
45736    2020-038GSTARLINK-14722023 Dec 82023 Nov 30
43496    2018-052BH-2A R/B2023 Dec 92023 Nov 23
57420    1998-067VXMAYA-62023 Dec 92023 Nov 30
42073    2017-015BH-2A R/B2023 Dec 102023 Nov 30
44068    2019-012BCZ-3B R/B2023 Dec 132023 Nov 30
52028    2022-026WSPACEBEENZ-122023 Dec 132023 Nov 30
58045    2023-156TSTARLINK-305502023 Dec 132023 Nov 15
40426    2015-010CFALCON 9 R/B2023 Dec 162023 Nov 30
41732    2016-051B3CAT-22023 Dec 162023 Nov 30
43164    2018-010BELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B2023 Dec 162023 Nov 30
47702    2021-015DSINE (SINDHUNETRA)2023 Dec 162023 Nov 15
47320    2021-002MOBJECT M2023 Dec 172023 Nov 30
48027    2021-024BCSTARLINK-23002023 Dec 182023 Nov 15
57533    2023-115NSTARLINK-302542023 Dec 192023 Nov 30
41170    2015-077EGALASSIA2023 Dec 202023 Nov 30
55565    2023-019DSS3 R/B2023 Dec 202023 Nov 30
43948    2019-006BKALAMSAT-V2/PSLV2023 Dec 212023 Nov 30
22447    1993-007BDELTA 2 R/B(1)2023 Dec 222023 Nov 30
43173    2018-011ECZ-2C R/B2023 Dec 232023 Nov 30
44858    2019-089GOBJECT G2023 Dec 242023 Nov 30
49014    2021-013DGUNSMOKE-J 22023 Dec 262023 Nov 30
52404    2022-047LSPACEBEENZ-192023 Dec 272023 Nov 30
56927    2023-083BDSTARLINK-58082023 Dec 272023 Nov 15
52951    2022-074HGUNSMOKE-L2023 Dec 282023 Nov 30
52395    2022-047BSPACEBEENZ-152023 Dec 292023 Nov 30
52396    2022-047CSPACEBEENZ-162024 Jan 12023 Nov 30
52008    2022-026AS4 CROSSOVER/ASTRA2024 Jan 22023 Nov 30
54041    2022-132GOBJECT G2024 Jan 22023 Nov 30
52277    2022-041SSTARLINK-37872024 Jan 32023 Nov 30
52398    2022-047ESPACEBEENZ-182024 Jan 32023 Nov 30
52397    2022-047DSPACEBEENZ-172024 Jan 42023 Nov 30
44956    2020-001AUSTARLINK-10702024 Jan 52023 Nov 30
47484    2021-006BZARCE-1C2024 Jan 52023 Nov 9
52402    2022-047JSPACEBEENZ-202024 Jan 52023 Nov 9


Recent TIP Messages

Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.

Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.

Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.

Orbital Focus shows the predicted impact point only when the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as +/-9000 km.

Table created: 2023 Dec 6, 10:47 UTC

Cat No &
Designation
Name
(Space-Track)
Predicted
Date & Time UTC
Lat, Long & Heading
(10 km altitude)
TIP Message
Issued UTC
58461
2023-184B
SL-4 R/B2023 Dec 3 02:27
± 1 minutes
27°.8 north, 127°.8 east
northbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2023 Dec 3 02:55
52946
2022-074C
OBJECT C2023 Dec 7 09:40
± 300 minutes
2023 Dec 6 09:57
51800
2022-017AJ
STARLINK-36002023 Dec 5 04:14
± 1140 minutes
2023 Dec 1 04:20
46134
2020-057T
STARLINK-16382023 Nov 29 20:09
± 52 minutes
2023 Nov 30 00:46
46065
2020-055AQ
STARLINK-15152023 Nov 29 14:40
± 1 minutes
51°.9 north, 3°.4 west
southbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2023 Nov 29 15:43
45736
2020-038G
STARLINK-14722023 Dec 9 09:42
± 840 minutes
2023 Dec 6 09:57
45382
2020-019Y
STARLINK-12642023 Dec 7 13:33
± 540 minutes
2023 Dec 5 17:50
45213
2020-012AM
STARLINK-12322023 Dec 2 20:11
± 540 minutes
2023 Dec 1 00:45
45208
2020-012AG
STARLINK-12112023 Dec 5 17:57
± 1 minutes
48°.5 south, 92°.6 west
southbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2023 Dec 6 03:49


Recent Re-entries

This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. The list is updated every few hours.


Cat No Designation Name (SpaceTrack) Date UTC
 
55563   2023-019BAZAADISAT-22023 Dec 5
58461   2023-184BSL-4 R/B2023 Dec 3
57317   1998-067VVOBJECT F2023 Dec 1
56315   1998-067VGNEUDOSE2023 Nov 29
56740   2023-071APROGRESS MS-232023 Nov 29
55979   2023-040BSL-4 R/B2023 Nov 22
58350   2023-176BYZ-1S R/B2023 Nov 21
57321   2023-098BGSLV R/B2023 Nov 15
58173   1998-067VZPARUS2023 Nov 12
56316   1998-067VHYUKONSAT2023 Nov 11
57314   1998-067VSOBJECT C2023 Nov 7

Note on TIP Messages

Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.

The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, the location is meaningless in practical terms because the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.

TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.


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