Feeling the Heat!
Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.
Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.
NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.
Anticipated Re-entries
Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.
Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz or a Dragon spacecraft returning from the ISS.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Predicted Date UTC |
Prediction Issued UTC |
49259 | 2021-087B | CZ-3B R/B | 2022 Aug 14 | 2022 Aug 14 | 47168 | 2020-088AY | STARLINK-1885 | 2022 Aug 14 | 2022 Aug 13 | 45539 | 2020-025J | STARLINK-1367 | 2022 Aug 15 | 2022 Aug 14 | 43043 | 2017-071G | AEROCUBE 7C | 2022 Aug 16 | 2022 Aug 4 | 44352 | 2019-036P | ARMADILLO | 2022 Aug 24 | 2022 Aug 11 | 45552 | 2020-025X | STARLINK-1322 | 2022 Aug 24 | 2022 Aug 11 | 53270 | 2022-086AE | STARLINK-4113 | 2022 Aug 27 | 2022 Aug 4 | 47145 | 2020-088Z | STARLINK-1858 | 2022 Aug 28 | 2022 Jul 20 | 49277 | 1998-067SW | PRCUNAR2 | 2022 Aug 31 | 2022 Aug 11 | 49073 | 2021-074C | CZ-4B R/B | 2022 Sep 2 | 2022 Aug 11 | 43141 | 2018-004AG | SPACEBEE-2 | 2022 Sep 8 | 2022 Aug 11 | 43617 | 2018-070E | ELFIN A | 2022 Sep 11 | 2022 Jul 20 | 45533 | 2020-025C | STARLINK-1339 | 2022 Sep 12 | 2022 Aug 11 | 43049 | 2017-071N | ASGARDIA 1 | 2022 Sep 13 | 2022 Aug 11 | 48867 | 1998-067SN | BD-28 | 2022 Sep 13 | 2022 Jul 20 |
Recent TIP Messages
Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.
Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.
Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.
Orbital Focus shows the predicted impact point only when the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as +/-9000 km.
Table created: 2022 Aug 14, 17:47 UTC
Cat No & Designation |
Name (Space-Track) |
Predicted Date & Time UTC |
Lat, Long & Heading (10 km altitude) |
TIP Message Issued UTC |
53270 2022-086AE | STARLINK-4113 | 2022 Aug 10 10:23 ± 1 minutes | 12°.6 north, 12°.8 east southbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2022 Aug 10 11:31 | 49259 2021-087B | CZ-3B R/B | 2022 Aug 14 05:31 ± 1 minutes | 25°.5 south, 109°.5 west northbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2022 Aug 14 07:55 | 48809 2021-047B | CZ-3B R/B | 2022 Aug 9 07:49 ± 1 minutes | 20°.7 north, 106°.6 east northbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2022 Aug 9 11:46 | 47168 2020-088AY | STARLINK-1885 | 2022 Aug 14 05:57 ± 300 minutes | | 2022 Aug 13 05:41 | 47145 2020-088Z | STARLINK-1858 | 2022 Aug 8 23:15 ± 38 minutes | | 2022 Aug 9 04:09 | 45539 2020-025J | STARLINK-1367 | 2022 Aug 15 05:16 ± 120 minutes | | 2022 Aug 14 16:57 | 39037 2012-075D | ARIANE 5 DEB (SYLDA) | 2022 Aug 13 14:37 ± 120 minutes | | 2022 Aug 13 08:27 |
Recent Re-entries
This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. The list is updated every few hours.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Date UTC |
43043 | 2017-071G | AEROCUBE 7C | 2022 Aug 12 | 53365 | 2022-094A | KPLO | 2022 Aug 12 | 53270 | 2022-086AE | STARLINK-4113 | 2022 Aug 10 | 47145 | 2020-088Z | STARLINK-1858 | 2022 Aug 9 | 48809 | 2021-047B | CZ-3B R/B | 2022 Aug 9 | 45126 | 2019-071R | ORCA-8 | 2022 Aug 8 | 49274 | 1998-067ST | MAYA-4 | 2022 Aug 8 | 43042 | 2017-071F | AEROCUBE 7B | 2022 Aug 5 | 49273 | 1998-067SS | MAYA-3 | 2022 Aug 4 | 53314 | 2019-003K | ALE-DOM | 2022 Aug 3 | 43142 | 2018-004AH | SPACEBEE-1 | 2022 Aug 2 | 39454 | 2013-067D | BREEZE-KM R/B | 2022 Aug 1 | 53279 | 2022-086AP | STARLINK-4163 | 2022 Jul 31 | 43052 | 2017-071R | FAUNA | 2022 Jul 30 | 53240 | 2022-085B | CZ-5B R/B | 2022 Jul 30 | 44249 | 2019-029Q | STARLINK-61 | 2022 Jul 29 | 49222 | 2021-085A | TIANZHOU 3 | 2022 Jul 27 | 42983 | 1998-067NF | SIMPL | 2022 Jul 26 | 45763 | 2020-038AK | STARLINK-1501 | 2022 Jul 25 | 53241 | 2022-085C | OBJECT C | 2022 Jul 25 | 44364 | 1998-067QJ | REDEYE 1 (PINOT) | 2022 Jul 24 | 47365 | 2021-005S | STARLINK-2080 | 2022 Jul 22 | 48969 | 2021-060C | ONEWEB-0251 | 2022 Jul 20 | 31136 | 2007-013B | AAM/PSLV | 2022 Jul 19 | 46046 | 2020-055V | STARLINK-1514 | 2022 Jul 17 |
Note on TIP Messages
Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.
The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, the location is meaningless in practical terms because the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.
TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.
Page information updated as available |