/nUpcoming and Recent Decays and Re-entries - eventually air drag, gravity or retro-fire mean that a spacecraft or satellite is no longer able to stay in orbit. It re-enters the atmosphere to be destroyed or make a safe landing.
Orbital Focus - International Spaceflight Facts and Figures
carousel image
 
Launches and Orbital Operations


Tyneside, UK
2023 Feb 9
Thursday, Day 40

Curated by:







Timelines:





History:


Feeling the Heat!

Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.

Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.

NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.


Anticipated Re-entries

Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.

Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz, Shenzhou or Dragon spacecraft returning from space station duties.

Cat No Designation Name
(SpaceTrack)
Predicted
Date UTC
Prediction
Issued UTC
55240    2023-005BCZ-2D R/B2023 Feb 72023 Feb 8
49221    2021-053CSZ-12 MODULE2023 Feb 82023 Feb 8
44722    2019-074KSTARLINK-10162023 Feb 92023 Feb 8
45116    2019-071FAEROCUBE 14B2023 Feb 102023 Feb 2
45117    2019-071GAEROCUBE 15B2023 Feb 112023 Feb 2
43857    2018-104JDAVINCI2023 Feb 122023 Feb 2
45118    2019-071HAEROCUBE 15A2023 Feb 122023 Jan 12
43615    2018-070CCP-7 DAVE2023 Feb 132023 Feb 2
45114    2019-071DAEROCUBE 14A2023 Feb 132023 Jan 12
46776    2020-074APSTARLINK-19462023 Feb 152023 Feb 2
44354    2019-036RPSAT 22023 Feb 162023 Feb 2
4166    1969-082JSOICAL (CYLINDER)2023 Feb 182023 Feb 2
54819    2022-176BCZ-4B R/B2023 Feb 192023 Feb 2
45252    2020-014DCZ-2D R/B2023 Feb 232023 Feb 2
11822    1980-044BSL-3 R/B2023 Feb 242023 Feb 2
44348    2019-036KOCULUS-ASR2023 Mar 12023 Feb 2
45537    2020-025GSTARLINK-13532023 Mar 12023 Feb 2
43729    2018-096LKEPLER-1 (CASE)2023 Mar 32023 Feb 2
43744    2018-096ABHIBER-12023 Mar 32023 Feb 2
48935    2021-059BJSPACEBEE-882023 Mar 32023 Feb 2
48913    2021-059ALCAPELLA-5 (WHITNEY)2023 Mar 42023 Feb 2
48940    2021-059BPSPACEBEE-912023 Mar 52023 Jan 19
45121    2019-071LCIRIS2023 Mar 62023 Jan 19
47425    2021-006NSPACEBEE-522023 Mar 62023 Jan 26
46959    2020-085AGSPACEBEENZ-12023 Mar 72023 Jan 19
47489    2021-006CECAPELLA-3 (WHITNEY)2023 Mar 82023 Feb 2
44416    2019-022FQUANTUM-RADAR 32023 Mar 92023 Feb 2
37838    2011-058AMEGHA-TROPIQUES2023 Mar 102023 Feb 2
48933    2021-059BGSPACEBEE-892023 Mar 102023 Jan 26
48939    2021-059BNSPACEBEE-932023 Mar 102023 Feb 2
48947    2021-059BWSPACEBEE-902023 Mar 102023 Jan 26
46269    2020-060BCAPELLA-22023 Mar 112023 Feb 2


Recent TIP Messages

Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.

Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.

Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.

Orbital Focus shows the predicted impact point only when the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as +/-9000 km.

Table created: 2023 Feb 9, 02:47 UTC

Cat No &
Designation
Name
(Space-Track)
Predicted
Date & Time UTC
Lat, Long & Heading
(10 km altitude)
TIP Message
Issued UTC
55301
2023-010AJ
STARLINK-53192023 Jan 31 21:55
± 2 minutes
60°.5 south, 155°.3 east
southbound, ± 0.02 orbits
2023 Feb 2 02:58
55240
2023-005B
CZ-2D R/B2023 Feb 7 22:23
± 1 minutes
17°.7 north, 140°.8 west
southbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2023 Feb 8 02:34
49221
2021-053C
SZ-12 MODULE2023 Feb 8 19:28
± 1 minutes
11°.2 north, 108°.8 east
northbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2023 Feb 8 23:58
46776
2020-074AP
STARLINK-19462023 Feb 5 01:26
± 1 minutes
41°.8 north, 143°.1 west
southbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2023 Feb 5 03:34
46763
2020-074AA
STARLINK-19022023 Feb 4 11:49
± 2 minutes
37°.4 north, 65°.4 east
southbound, ± 0.02 orbits
2023 Feb 4 16:36
44722
2019-074K
STARLINK-10162023 Feb 9 23:33
± 300 minutes
2023 Feb 8 23:05
40913
2015-049Q
CZ-6 R/B2023 Feb 2 10:41
± 56 minutes
2023 Feb 2 08:32


Recent Re-entries

This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. The list is updated every few hours.


Cat No Designation Name (SpaceTrack) Date UTC
 
41984   2017-008ANFLOCK 3P 792023 Feb 7
42038   2017-008CUFLOCK 3P 392023 Feb 7
45118   2019-071HAEROCUBE 15A2023 Feb 7
52795   2022-059APROGRESS MS-202023 Feb 7
55240   2023-005BCZ-2D R/B2023 Feb 7
46776   2020-074APSTARLINK-19462023 Feb 5
45114   2019-071DAEROCUBE 14A2023 Feb 4
46763   2020-074AASTARLINK-19022023 Feb 4
41960   2017-008NFLOCK 3P 282023 Feb 3
42001   2017-008BFFLOCK 3P 492023 Feb 3
42009   2017-008BPFLOCK 3P 612023 Feb 3
43693   2018-088DIRVINE012023 Feb 3
43731   2018-096NLEMUR 2 ORZULAK2023 Feb 3
43732   2018-096PLEMUR 2 KOBYSZCZE2023 Feb 3
52917   2022-015DNACHOS-12023 Feb 3
40913   2015-049QCZ-6 R/B2023 Feb 2
42006   2017-008BLFLOCK 3P 482023 Jan 31
42027   2017-008CHFLOCK 3P 662023 Jan 31
43906   2018-111AGFLOCK 3K 92023 Jan 31
49013   2021-013CORCA-72023 Jan 31
49015   2021-013EORCA-62023 Jan 31
53307   1998-067TSTSIOLKOVSKY-RYAZAN 22023 Jan 31
53308   1998-067TTYUZGU 122023 Jan 31
53309   1998-067TUYUZGU 52023 Jan 31
53310   1998-067TVYUZGU 92023 Jan 31
53312   1998-067TXYUZGU 62023 Jan 31
53313   1998-067TYYUZGU 72023 Jan 31
53321   1998-067TZYUZGU 102023 Jan 31
53322   1998-067UAYUZGU 112023 Jan 31
53464   1998-067UDTUMNANOSAT2023 Jan 31
53770   1998-067UHCAPSAT 12023 Jan 31
55301   2023-010AJSTARLINK-53192023 Jan 31
42035   2017-008CRFLOCK 3P 632023 Jan 28
41973   2017-008ABFLOCK 3P 92023 Jan 27
41989   2017-008ATFLOCK 3P 352023 Jan 27
42011   2017-008BRFLOCK 3P 162023 Jan 27
42020   2017-008CAFLOCK 3P 692023 Jan 27
42041   2017-008CXFLOCK 3P 552023 Jan 27
43614   2018-070BSURFSAT2023 Jan 27
44357   2019-036UOBJECT U2023 Jan 27
53306   1998-067TRYUZGU 82023 Jan 27
53311   1998-067TWTSIOLKOVSKY-RYAZAN 12023 Jan 27
41966   2017-008UFLOCK 3P 22023 Jan 25
41986   2017-008AQFLOCK 3P 362023 Jan 25
43791   2018-099AKCAPELLA-12023 Jan 25
53771   1998-067UJJAGSAT 12023 Jan 22
30776   2007-006EFALCONSAT 32023 Jan 21
40306   2014-071BCZ-2C R/B2023 Jan 21
42023   2017-008CDFLOCK 3P 322023 Jan 21
43892   2018-111SFLOCK 3K 32023 Jan 21
42028   2017-008CJFLOCK 3P 652023 Jan 20
42029   2017-008CKFLOCK 3P 502023 Jan 20
42034   2017-008CQFLOCK 3P 642023 Jan 20
42051   2017-008DHFLOCK 3P 722023 Jan 19
42018   2017-008BYFLOCK 3P 232023 Jan 18
43560   2018-046GLEMUR 2 YUASA2023 Jan 18
43901   2018-111ABFLOCK 3K 82023 Jan 17
53349   2022-090DCZ-4B R/B2023 Jan 17
29712   2007-001DPEHUENSAT 12023 Jan 16
41172   2015-077GPSLV R/B2023 Jan 16
41609   2016-040LFLOCK 2P 22023 Jan 16
41614   2016-040RFLOCK 2P 122023 Jan 16
42032   2017-008CNFLOCK 3P 472023 Jan 16
42039   2017-008CVFLOCK 3P 152023 Jan 16
51509   1998-067TGLIGHT-12023 Jan 16
41965   2017-008TFLOCK 3P 42023 Jan 15
43902   2018-111ACFLOCK 3K 72023 Jan 14
44365   2019-037APAINANI 12023 Jan 14
54036   2022-132BOBJECT B2023 Jan 14
41972   2017-008AAFLOCK 3P 122023 Jan 13
43559   2018-046FLEMUR 2 ALEXANDER2023 Jan 13
43746   2018-096ADLEMUR 2 VLADIMIR2023 Jan 13
54371   2022-159ADRAGON CRS-262023 Jan 11


Note on TIP Messages

Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.

The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, the location is meaningless in practical terms because the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.

TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.


Page information updated as available

Copyright © Robert Christy, all rights reserved
Reproduction of this web page or any of its content without permission from the website owner is prohibited