Feeling the Heat!
Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.
Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.
NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.
Anticipated Re-entries
Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.
Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz, Shenzhou or Dragon spacecraft returning from space station duties.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Predicted Date UTC |
Prediction Issued UTC |
46938 | 2020-085K | SPACEBEENZ-3 | 2023 Mar 24 | 2023 Mar 1 | 46552 | 2020-070W | STARLINK-1649 | 2023 Mar 24 | 2023 Mar 24 | 43728 | 2018-096K | 3CAT-1 | 2023 Mar 25 | 2023 Mar 23 | 43940 | 2019-003J | AOBA VELOX-IV | 2023 Mar 25 | 2023 Mar 23 | 46305 | 2020-061AK | SPACEBEE-10 | 2023 Mar 26 | 2023 Mar 23 | 29093 | 2006-015B | CZ-4B R/B | 2023 Mar 26 | 2023 Mar 24 | 53764 | 2022-109E | CZ-2D R/B | 2023 Mar 27 | 2023 Mar 24 | 53523 | 2022-100B | CZ-2D R/B | 2023 Mar 28 | 2023 Mar 25 | 55606 | 2023-020AP | STARLINK-5723 | 2023 Mar 29 | 2023 Mar 1 | 46939 | 2020-085L | SPACEBEENZ-4 | 2023 Mar 30 | 2023 Mar 15 | 48946 | 2021-059BV | SPACEBEE-97 | 2023 Mar 30 | 2023 Mar 1 | 48949 | 2021-059BY | SPACEBEE-98 | 2023 Mar 31 | 2023 Mar 1 | 51079 | 2022-002CZ | USA 323 | 2023 Mar 31 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47444 | 2021-006AH | SPACEBEE-51 | 2023 Apr 1 | 2023 Mar 23 | 28118 | 2003-057B | ATLAS 3B CENTAUR R/B | 2023 Apr 2 | 2023 Mar 23 | 48627 | 2021-006ET | SPACEBEE-64 | 2023 Apr 2 | 2023 Mar 23 | 42768 | 2017-036D | LITUANICASAT 2 | 2023 Apr 4 | 2023 Mar 9 | 44963 | 2020-001BB | STARLINK-1085 | 2023 Apr 4 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47426 | 2021-006P | SPACEBEE-46 | 2023 Apr 4 | 2023 Mar 23 | 46941 | 2020-085N | SPACEBEENZ-5 | 2023 Apr 5 | 2023 Mar 23 | 48936 | 2021-059BK | SPACEBEE-99 | 2023 Apr 5 | 2023 Mar 1 | 46834 | 2020-079H | OBJECT H | 2023 Apr 7 | 2023 Mar 1 | 47451 | 2021-006AQ | SPACEBEE-41 | 2023 Apr 7 | 2023 Mar 23 | 48626 | 2021-006ES | SPACEBEE-65 | 2023 Apr 7 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47434 | 2021-006X | SPACEBEE-53 | 2023 Apr 8 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47449 | 2021-006AN | SPACEBEE-40 | 2023 Apr 8 | 2023 Mar 23 | 44814 | 2019-081L | FLOCK 4P 1 | 2023 Apr 9 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47481 | 2021-006BW | CAPELLA-4 (WHITNEY) | 2023 Apr 9 | 2023 Mar 23 | 45119 | 2019-071J | HO-107 | 2023 Apr 10 | 2023 Mar 23 | 46307 | 2020-061AM | SPACEBEE-11 | 2023 Apr 11 | 2023 Mar 23 | 46942 | 2020-085P | SPACEBEENZ-6 | 2023 Apr 11 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47427 | 2021-006Q | SPACEBEE-47 | 2023 Apr 11 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47455 | 2021-006AU | SPACEBEE-42 | 2023 Apr 11 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47464 | 2021-006BD | SPACEBEE-58 | 2023 Apr 11 | 2023 Mar 23 | 49392 | 2021-101C | CZ-2D R/B | 2023 Apr 11 | 2023 Mar 1 | 47460 | 2021-006AZ | SPACEBEE-54 | 2023 Apr 12 | 2023 Mar 23 | 28939 | 2006-005A | ASTRO F (AKARI) | 2023 Apr 13 | 2023 Mar 9 | 44770 | 2019-074BK | STARLINK-1065 | 2023 Apr 14 | 2023 Mar 23 | 46742 | 2020-074D | STARLINK-1872 | 2023 Apr 14 | 2023 Mar 23 | 48628 | 2021-006EU | SPACEBEE-66 | 2023 Apr 14 | 2023 Mar 23 | 27370 | 2002-004A | RHESSI | 2023 Apr 18 | 2023 Mar 23 | 39465 | 2013-072D | AEROCUBE 5A | 2023 Apr 18 | 2023 Mar 23 | 45046 | 2020-006C | STARLINK-1129 | 2023 Apr 18 | 2023 Mar 23 | 46309 | 2020-061AP | SPACEBEE-12 | 2023 Apr 18 | 2023 Mar 23 | 46774 | 2020-074AM | STARLINK-1939 | 2023 Apr 18 | 2023 Mar 23 | 47428 | 2021-006R | SPACEBEE-59 | 2023 Apr 18 | 2023 Mar 23 | 48629 | 2021-006EV | SPACEBEE-67 | 2023 Apr 18 | 2023 Mar 23 | 43144 | 2018-004AK | TYVAK-61C | 2023 Apr 19 | 2023 Mar 1 | 44824 | 2019-084A | ALE-2 | 2023 Apr 19 | 2023 Mar 23 | 45202 | 2020-012AA | STARLINK-1203 | 2023 Apr 19 | 2023 Mar 23 | 54057 | 2022-136G | STARLINK-5216 | 2023 Apr 19 | 2023 Mar 23 | 30774 | 2007-006C | OE (NEXTSAT) | 2023 Apr 20 | 2023 Mar 23 | 48012 | 2021-024AM | STARLINK-2216 | 2023 Apr 20 | 2023 Mar 23 | 53304 | 2022-087F | ZK-1A R/B | 2023 Apr 20 | 2023 Mar 23 | 48630 | 2021-006EW | SPACEBEE-68 | 2023 Apr 21 | 2023 Mar 23 | 55666 | 2023-021AQ | STARLINK-5457 | 2023 Apr 23 | 2023 Mar 23 | 44742 | 2019-074AF | STARLINK-1037 | 2023 Apr 24 | 2023 Mar 23 | 46310 | 2020-061AQ | SPACEBEE-13 | 2023 Apr 24 | 2023 Mar 23 | 48631 | 2021-006EX | SPACEBEE-69 | 2023 Apr 24 | 2023 Mar 23 |
Recent TIP Messages
Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.
Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.
Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.
Orbital Focus shows the predicted impact point only when the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as +/-9000 km.
Table created: 2023 Mar 25, 20:47 UTC
Cat No & Designation |
Name (Space-Track) |
Predicted Date & Time UTC |
Lat, Long & Heading (10 km altitude) |
TIP Message Issued UTC |
55977 2023-039E | KZ-1A R/B | 2023 Mar 23 08:37 ± 1 minutes | 23°.7 north, 80°.1 west northbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2023 Mar 23 13:39 | 55568 2023-019G | SS3 DEB | 2023 Mar 18 12:18 ± 180 minutes | | 2023 Mar 18 16:48 | 53764 2022-109E | CZ-2D R/B | 2023 Mar 27 13:16 ± 840 minutes | | 2023 Mar 24 21:41 | 53523 2022-100B | CZ-2D R/B | 2023 Mar 28 09:39 ± 900 minutes | | 2023 Mar 25 09:57 | 52321 2022-043B | CZ-2C DEB | 2023 Mar 19 09:26 ± 1 minutes | 82°.6 north, 113°.5 east southbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2023 Mar 19 10:51 | 46552 2020-070W | STARLINK-1649 | 2023 Mar 24 08:30 ± 1 minutes | 44°.3 south, 167°.8 east southbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2023 Mar 24 14:05 | 45530 2020-024B | QASED R/B | 2023 Mar 19 00:48 ± 19 minutes | 50°.3 north, 159°.9 east southbound, ± 0.22 orbits | 2023 Mar 19 06:28 | 45265 1998-067RJ | ISS DEB (ICS-EF) | 2023 Mar 18 04:28 ± 1 minutes | 42°.9 north, 127°.4 west southbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2023 Mar 18 05:55 | 29093 2006-015B | CZ-4B R/B | 2023 Mar 26 17:02 ± 600 minutes | | 2023 Mar 24 16:56 |
Recent Re-entries
This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. The list is updated every few hours.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Date UTC |
42995 | 2017-068J | FLOCK 3M 1 | 2023 Mar 24 | 43940 | 2019-003J | AOBA VELOX-IV | 2023 Mar 24 | 46552 | 2020-070W | STARLINK-1649 | 2023 Mar 24 | 55356 | 2023-013AB | STARLINK-5083 | 2023 Mar 23 | 55977 | 2023-039E | KZ-1A R/B | 2023 Mar 23 | 41951 | 2017-008D | FLOCK 3P 8 | 2023 Mar 22 | 41990 | 2017-008AU | FLOCK 3P 33 | 2023 Mar 22 | 46938 | 2020-085K | SPACEBEENZ-3 | 2023 Mar 22 | 55911 | 2023-035D | OBJECT D | 2023 Mar 22 | 41610 | 2016-040M | FLOCK 2P 9 | 2023 Mar 20 | 41968 | 2017-008W | FLOCK 3P 3 | 2023 Mar 20 | 41980 | 2017-008AJ | FLOCK 3P 70 | 2023 Mar 20 | 43722 | 2018-096D | CENTAURI 2 | 2023 Mar 20 | 45113 | 2019-071C | OF-2 | 2023 Mar 20 | 47447 | 2021-006AL | SPACEBEE-48 | 2023 Mar 20 | 48934 | 2021-059BH | SPACEBEE-96 | 2023 Mar 20 | 45530 | 2020-024B | QASED R/B | 2023 Mar 19 | 43192 | 2018-015A | FENGMANIU 1 | 2023 Mar 16 | 47301 | 2020-102F | CZ-8 R/B | 2023 Mar 16 | 44087 | 2019-018K | LEMUR 2 VICTOR-ANDREW | 2023 Mar 15 | 44090 | 2019-018N | FLOCK 4A 19 | 2023 Mar 15 | 44095 | 2019-018T | FLOCK 4A 5 | 2023 Mar 15 | 46957 | 2020-085AE | SPACEBEENZ-2 | 2023 Mar 15 | 47872 | 2021-021N | STARLINK-2328 | 2023 Mar 15 | 48945 | 2021-059BU | SPACEBEE-95 | 2023 Mar 15 | 54816 | 2021-035C | XW-4 (CAS-10) | 2023 Mar 15 | 42010 | 2017-008BQ | FLOCK 3P 40 | 2023 Mar 14 | 42795 | 2017-036AG | TYVAK 53B | 2023 Mar 14 | 43934 | 2019-003C | RISESAT | 2023 Mar 14 | 44088 | 2019-018L | FLOCK 4A 17 | 2023 Mar 14 | 45121 | 2019-071L | CIRIS | 2023 Mar 14 | 47972 | 2021-023H | PHOTON-02 | 2023 Mar 14 | 48932 | 2021-059BF | SPACEBEE-92 | 2023 Mar 14 | 48937 | 2021-059BL | SPACEBEE-94 | 2023 Mar 14 | 52148 | 1998-067TK | KITSUNE | 2023 Mar 14 | 53963 | 2022-124A | DRAGON ENDURANCE 2 | 2023 Mar 12 | 39380 | 2013-064A | STPSAT-3 | 2023 Mar 11 | 47890 | 2021-021AG | STARLINK-2350 | 2023 Mar 11 | 53317 | 2022-088B | CZ-2D R/B | 2023 Mar 11 | 53462 | 1998-067UB | HSU-SAT1 | 2023 Mar 11 | 55606 | 2023-020AP | STARLINK-5723 | 2023 Mar 10 | 52260 | 2021-092C | SZ-13 MODULE | 2023 Mar 8 | 52910 | 2022-068D | CZ-2D R/B | 2023 Mar 8 | 37838 | 2011-058A | MEGHA-TROPIQUES | 2023 Mar 7 | 41950 | 2017-008C | FLOCK 3P 20 | 2023 Mar 7 | 41976 | 2017-008AE | FLOCK 3P 60 | 2023 Mar 7 | 44084 | 2019-018G | LEMUR 2 JOHANLORAN | 2023 Mar 7 | 44416 | 2019-022F | QUANTUM-RADAR 3 | 2023 Mar 7 | 46959 | 2020-085AG | SPACEBEENZ-1 | 2023 Mar 7 | 48933 | 2021-059BG | SPACEBEE-89 | 2023 Mar 7 | 48940 | 2021-059BP | SPACEBEE-91 | 2023 Mar 7 | 41612 | 2016-040P | FLOCK 2P 10 | 2023 Mar 6 | 47425 | 2021-006N | SPACEBEE-52 | 2023 Mar 6 | 38997 | 2012-064A | HJ-1C | 2023 Mar 1 | 48947 | 2021-059BW | SPACEBEE-90 | 2023 Mar 1 | 42031 | 2017-008CM | FLOCK 3P 46 | 2023 Feb 28 | 42033 | 2017-008CP | FLOCK 3P 44 | 2023 Feb 28 | 42044 | 2017-008DA | FLOCK 3P 87 | 2023 Feb 28 | 42049 | 2017-008DF | FLOCK 3P 31 | 2023 Feb 28 | 42997 | 2017-068L | FLOCK 3M 4 | 2023 Feb 28 | 43904 | 2018-111AE | FLOCK 3K 11 | 2023 Feb 28 | 46269 | 2020-060B | CAPELLA-2 | 2023 Feb 28 | 47166 | 2020-088AW | STARLINK-1881 | 2023 Feb 28 | 48939 | 2021-059BN | SPACEBEE-93 | 2023 Feb 27 | 54025 | 2022-127C | ELECTRON R/B | 2023 Feb 27 | 47489 | 2021-006CE | CAPELLA-3 (WHITNEY) | 2023 Feb 26 | 55689 | 2023-024B | SL-4 R/B | 2023 Feb 26 | 41999 | 2017-008BD | BGUSAT | 2023 Feb 24 | 43744 | 2018-096AB | HIBER-1 | 2023 Feb 24 | 48935 | 2021-059BJ | SPACEBEE-88 | 2023 Feb 24 |
Note on TIP Messages
Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.
The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, the location is meaningless in practical terms because the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.
TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.
Page information updated as available |