/nUpcoming and Recent Decays and Re-entries - eventually air drag, gravity or retro-fire mean that a spacecraft or satellite is no longer able to stay in orbit. It re-enters the atmosphere to be destroyed or make a safe landing.
Orbital Focus - International Spaceflight Facts and Figures
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Launches and Orbital Operations


Tyneside, UK
2023 Jan 29
Sunday, Day 29

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Feeling the Heat!

Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.

Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.

NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.


Anticipated Re-entries

Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.

Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz, Shenzhou or Dragon spacecraft returning from space station duties.

Cat No Designation Name
(SpaceTrack)
Predicted
Date UTC
Prediction
Issued UTC
49013    2021-013CORCA-72023 Jan 282023 Jan 26
43614    2018-070BSURFSAT2023 Jan 292023 Jan 12
54802    2022-175AWSTARLINK-54262023 Jan 292023 Jan 5
43693    2018-088DIRVINE012023 Jan 312023 Jan 26
43791    2018-099AKCAPELLA-12023 Jan 312023 Jan 12
40913    2015-049QCZ-6 R/B2023 Feb 12023 Jan 19
45114    2019-071DAEROCUBE 14A2023 Feb 32023 Jan 26
45118    2019-071HAEROCUBE 15A2023 Feb 42023 Jan 26
49015    2021-013EORCA-62023 Feb 62023 Jan 5
43857    2018-104JDAVINCI2023 Feb 82023 Jan 26
45116    2019-071FAEROCUBE 14B2023 Feb 82023 Jan 26
45117    2019-071GAEROCUBE 15B2023 Feb 92023 Jan 26
43615    2018-070CCP-7 DAVE2023 Feb 122023 Jan 26
44354    2019-036RPSAT 22023 Feb 152023 Jan 26
4166    1969-082JSOICAL (CYLINDER)2023 Feb 172023 Jan 26
46776    2020-074APSTARLINK-19462023 Feb 172023 Jan 26
54819    2022-176BCZ-4B R/B2023 Feb 192023 Jan 26
45252    2020-014DCZ-2D R/B2023 Feb 212023 Jan 26
11822    1980-044BSL-3 R/B2023 Feb 222023 Jan 26
48935    2021-059BJSPACEBEE-882023 Feb 232023 Jan 19
37838    2011-058AMEGHA-TROPIQUES2023 Feb 242023 Jan 5
48913    2021-059ALCAPELLA-5 (WHITNEY)2023 Feb 242023 Jan 19
43744    2018-096ABHIBER-12023 Feb 262023 Jan 26
45537    2020-025GSTARLINK-13532023 Feb 262023 Jan 26
47489    2021-006CECAPELLA-3 (WHITNEY)2023 Feb 262023 Jan 19
43729    2018-096LKEPLER-1 (CASE)2023 Feb 272023 Jan 26
44348    2019-036KOCULUS-ASR2023 Feb 272023 Jan 26
48939    2021-059BNSPACEBEE-932023 Feb 272023 Jan 19


Recent TIP Messages

Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.

Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.

Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.

Orbital Focus shows the predicted impact point only when the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as +/-9000 km.

Table created: 2023 Jan 29, 01:47 UTC

Cat No &
Designation
Name
(Space-Track)
Predicted
Date & Time UTC
Lat, Long & Heading
(10 km altitude)
TIP Message
Issued UTC
55241
2022-159B
DRAGON CRS-26 DEB2023 Jan 21 18:28
± 1 minutes
4°.1 south, 72°.5 west
northbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2023 Jan 21 18:54
49694
1982-092GP
COSMOS 1408 DEB2023 Jan 21 19:44
± 33 minutes
2023 Jan 22 01:14
49535
1982-092Y
COSMOS 1408 DEB2023 Jan 24 03:00
± 14 minutes
4°.3 north, 126°.5 west
northbound, ± 0.16 orbits
2023 Jan 24 06:24
43791
2018-099AK
CAPELLA-12023 Jan 25 21:47
± 33 minutes
2023 Jan 25 23:28
40306
2014-071B
CZ-2C R/B2023 Jan 21 15:12
± 1 minutes
30°.8 north, 22°.9 east
northbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2023 Jan 21 15:50


Recent Re-entries

This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. The list is updated every few hours.


Cat No Designation Name (SpaceTrack) Date UTC
 
41973   2017-008ABFLOCK 3P 92023 Jan 27
41989   2017-008ATFLOCK 3P 352023 Jan 27
42011   2017-008BRFLOCK 3P 162023 Jan 27
42020   2017-008CAFLOCK 3P 692023 Jan 27
42041   2017-008CXFLOCK 3P 552023 Jan 27
43614   2018-070BSURFSAT2023 Jan 27
44357   2019-036UOBJECT U2023 Jan 27
53306   1998-067TRYUZGU 82023 Jan 27
53311   1998-067TWTSIOLKOVSKY-RYAZAN 12023 Jan 27
41966   2017-008UFLOCK 3P 22023 Jan 25
41986   2017-008AQFLOCK 3P 362023 Jan 25
43791   2018-099AKCAPELLA-12023 Jan 25
53771   1998-067UJJAGSAT 12023 Jan 22
30776   2007-006EFALCONSAT 32023 Jan 21
40306   2014-071BCZ-2C R/B2023 Jan 21
42023   2017-008CDFLOCK 3P 322023 Jan 21
43892   2018-111SFLOCK 3K 32023 Jan 21
42028   2017-008CJFLOCK 3P 652023 Jan 20
42029   2017-008CKFLOCK 3P 502023 Jan 20
42034   2017-008CQFLOCK 3P 642023 Jan 20
42051   2017-008DHFLOCK 3P 722023 Jan 19
42018   2017-008BYFLOCK 3P 232023 Jan 18
43560   2018-046GLEMUR 2 YUASA2023 Jan 18
43901   2018-111ABFLOCK 3K 82023 Jan 17
53349   2022-090DCZ-4B R/B2023 Jan 17
29712   2007-001DPEHUENSAT 12023 Jan 16
41172   2015-077GPSLV R/B2023 Jan 16
41609   2016-040LFLOCK 2P 22023 Jan 16
41614   2016-040RFLOCK 2P 122023 Jan 16
42032   2017-008CNFLOCK 3P 472023 Jan 16
42039   2017-008CVFLOCK 3P 152023 Jan 16
51509   1998-067TGLIGHT-12023 Jan 16
41965   2017-008TFLOCK 3P 42023 Jan 15
43902   2018-111ACFLOCK 3K 72023 Jan 14
44365   2019-037APAINANI 12023 Jan 14
54036   2022-132BOBJECT B2023 Jan 14
41972   2017-008AAFLOCK 3P 122023 Jan 13
43559   2018-046FLEMUR 2 ALEXANDER2023 Jan 13
43746   2018-096ADLEMUR 2 VLADIMIR2023 Jan 13
54371   2022-159ADRAGON CRS-262023 Jan 11
41964   2017-008SFLOCK 3P 252023 Jan 10
42037   2017-008CTFLOCK 3P 382023 Jan 10
47703   2021-015ESPACEBEE-872023 Jan 10
41606   2016-040HFLOCK 2P 62023 Jan 8
41975   2017-008ADFLOCK 3P 112023 Jan 8
41959   2017-008MFLOCK 3P 212023 Jan 7
41979   2017-008AHFLOCK 3P 752023 Jan 7
41974   2017-008ACFLOCK 3P 102023 Jan 6
41982   2017-008ALFLOCK 3P 882023 Jan 6
10059   1977-047ACOSMOS 9172023 Jan 4
42005   2017-008BKFLOCK 3P 452023 Jan 4
43905   2018-111AFFLOCK 3K 102023 Jan 4
47704   2021-015FSPACEBEE-862023 Jan 4
47705   2021-015GSPACEBEE-852023 Jan 4
41977   2017-008AFFLOCK 3P 582023 Jan 3
42030   2017-008CLFLOCK 3P 522023 Jan 3
43899   2018-111ZFLOCK 3K 52023 Jan 3
47706   2021-015HSPACEBEE-842023 Jan 2
42024   2017-008CEFLOCK 3P 712022 Dec 31
44841   2019-087DOBJECT D2022 Dec 31


Note on TIP Messages

Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.

The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, the location is meaningless in practical terms because the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.

TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.


Page information updated as available

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