Feeling the Heat!
Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.
Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.
NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.
Anticipated Re-entries
Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.
Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz, Shenzhou or Dragon spacecraft returning from space station duties.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Predicted Date UTC |
Prediction Issued UTC |
44731 | 2019-074U | STARLINK-1026 | 2023 Sep 22 | 2023 Sep 23 | 41619 | 2016-040W | BEESAT 4 | 2023 Sep 23 | 2023 Sep 21 | 43854 | 2018-104F | OBJECT F | 2023 Sep 23 | 2023 Sep 13 | 45694 | 2020-035AP | STARLINK-1419 | 2023 Sep 24 | 2023 Sep 24 | 45125 | 2019-071Q | OBJECT Q | 2023 Sep 25 | 2023 Sep 13 | 47779 | 2021-017BK | STARLINK-2212 | 2023 Sep 25 | 2023 Sep 24 | 57796 | 2023-135E | CERES-1 R/B | 2023 Sep 25 | 2023 Sep 24 | 11509 | 1979-077A | COSMOS 1124 | 2023 Sep 25 | 2023 Sep 22 | 55476 | 2023-015AD | STARLINK-5596 | 2023 Sep 26 | 2023 Sep 23 | 47886 | 2021-021AC | STARLINK-2345 | 2023 Sep 27 | 2023 Sep 24 | 44955 | 2020-001AT | STARLINK-1069 | 2023 Sep 28 | 2023 Sep 21 | 57638 | 2023-122G | STARLINK-30328 | 2023 Sep 28 | 2023 Sep 7 | 52176 | 2022-033V | SPACEBEE-130 | 2023 Sep 29 | 2023 Sep 21 | 41949 | 2017-008B | INS-1A | 2023 Sep 30 | 2023 Sep 13 | 57505 | 2023-113L | STARLINK-30227 | 2023 Sep 30 | 2023 Aug 31 | 43132 | 2018-004X | PICSAT | 2023 Oct 2 | 2023 Sep 21 | 51025 | 2022-002AT | GRIZU 263A | 2023 Oct 2 | 2023 Sep 21 | 52164 | 2022-033H | SPACEBEE-136 | 2023 Oct 2 | 2023 Sep 21 | 55697 | 2023-026C | STARLINK-30040 | 2023 Oct 2 | 2023 Sep 13 | 43938 | 2019-003G | ALE-1 | 2023 Oct 3 | 2023 Sep 21 | 50162 | 2021-125G | STARLINK-3303 | 2023 Oct 3 | 2023 Aug 31 | 52949 | 2022-074F | MISR-B-1 | 2023 Oct 3 | 2023 Sep 21 | 52166 | 2022-033K | SPACEBEE-138 | 2023 Oct 4 | 2023 Sep 21 | 52185 | 2022-033AE | SPACEBEE-132 | 2023 Oct 4 | 2023 Sep 21 | 51101 | 2022-003H | LAUNCHERONE R/B | 2023 Oct 5 | 2023 Sep 21 | 52187 | 2022-033AG | SPACEBEE-135 | 2023 Oct 5 | 2023 Sep 21 | 42788 | 2017-036Z | SUCHAI | 2023 Oct 6 | 2023 Sep 13 | 44964 | 2020-001BC | STARLINK-1086 | 2023 Oct 6 | 2023 Sep 21 | 45180 | 2020-012C | STARLINK-1192 | 2023 Oct 7 | 2023 Sep 21 | 55129 | 1998-067UW | SPORT | 2023 Oct 10 | 2023 Sep 21 | 43851 | 2018-104C | ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B | 2023 Oct 11 | 2023 Sep 21 | 41954 | 2017-008G | INS-1B | 2023 Oct 12 | 2023 Sep 13 | 52177 | 2022-033W | SPACEBEE-139 | 2023 Oct 12 | 2023 Sep 21 | 56312 | 1998-067VD | AURORASAT | 2023 Oct 12 | 2023 Sep 21 | 57666 | 2023-124D | STARLINK-30301 | 2023 Oct 13 | 2023 Sep 21 | 26959 | 2001-049C | BIRD 2 | 2023 Oct 14 | 2023 Sep 7 | 52182 | 2022-033AB | SPACEBEE-128 | 2023 Oct 15 | 2023 Sep 21 | 56314 | 1998-067VF | LIGHTCUBE | 2023 Oct 16 | 2023 Sep 21 | 44410 | 2019-038AA | D STAR ONE (EXOCONNECT) | 2023 Oct 17 | 2023 Sep 21 | 42792 | 2017-036AD | ROBUSTA 1B | 2023 Oct 18 | 2023 Sep 13 | 52186 | 2022-033AF | SPACEBEE-137 | 2023 Oct 18 | 2023 Sep 21 | 20303 | 1989-085B | DELTA 2 R/B(1) | 2023 Oct 19 | 2023 Sep 21 | 52179 | 2022-033Y | SPACEBEE-129 | 2023 Oct 20 | 2023 Sep 21 | 52183 | 2022-033AC | SPACEBEE-133 | 2023 Oct 20 | 2023 Sep 13 | 57466 | 2023-107K | STARLINK-30156 | 2023 Oct 20 | 2023 Sep 21 | 52180 | 2022-033Z | SPACEBEE-134 | 2023 Oct 22 | 2023 Sep 21 | 52181 | 2022-033AA | SPACEBEE-131 | 2023 Oct 22 | 2023 Sep 13 | 25735 | 1999-026A | TERRIERS | 2023 Oct 23 | 2023 Sep 7 | 44738 | 2019-074AB | STARLINK-1033 | 2023 Oct 23 | 2023 Sep 21 | 44957 | 2020-001AV | STARLINK-1074 | 2023 Oct 23 | 2023 Sep 21 | 51471 | 2022-010R | STARLINK-3165 | 2023 Oct 23 | 2023 Sep 21 | 43743 | 2018-096AA | REAKTOR HELLO WORLD | 2023 Oct 24 | 2023 Sep 13 |
Recent TIP Messages
Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.
Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.
Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.
Orbital Focus shows the predicted impact point only when the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as +/-9000 km.
Table created: 2023 Sep 24, 22:47 UTC
Cat No & Designation |
Name (Space-Track) |
Predicted Date & Time UTC |
Lat, Long & Heading (10 km altitude) |
TIP Message Issued UTC |
57863 2023-143B | SL-4 R/B | 2023 Sep 18 04:47 ± 1 minutes | 45°.5 south, 31°.1 east southbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2023 Sep 18 05:33 | 57796 2023-135E | CERES-1 R/B | 2023 Sep 25 05:38 ± 180 minutes | | 2023 Sep 24 17:51 | 57494 2023-112B | FALCON 9 R/B | 2023 Sep 21 11:40 ± 1 minutes | 18°.5 south, 103°.2 west southbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2023 Sep 21 22:26 | 55476 2023-015AD | STARLINK-5596 | 2023 Sep 26 13:24 ± 900 minutes | | 2023 Sep 23 16:43 | 47886 2021-021AC | STARLINK-2345 | 2023 Sep 27 15:33 ± 840 minutes | | 2023 Sep 24 19:41 | 47779 2021-017BK | STARLINK-2212 | 2023 Sep 25 03:54 ± 60 minutes | | 2023 Sep 24 22:22 | 46929 2020-085A | ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B | 2023 Sep 21 12:36 ± 8 minutes | 10°.0 south, 51°.9 east southbound, ± 0.09 orbits | 2023 Sep 21 20:11 | 45694 2020-035AP | STARLINK-1419 | 2023 Sep 24 10:58 ± 2 minutes | 29°.6 south, 108°.3 east southbound, ± 0.02 orbits | 2023 Sep 24 14:01 | 44731 2019-074U | STARLINK-1026 | 2023 Sep 22 22:11 ± 14 minutes | 0°.9 south, 110°.3 west northbound, ± 0.16 orbits | 2023 Sep 23 03:17 | 35754 2009-043C | DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D) | 2023 Sep 18 05:02 ± 18 minutes | 39°.7 north, 154°.4 west northbound, ± 0.2 orbits | 2023 Sep 18 14:31 | 11509 1979-077A | COSMOS 1124 | 2023 Sep 25 08:58 ± 840 minutes | | 2023 Sep 22 12:19 |
Recent Re-entries
This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. The list is updated every few hours.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Date UTC |
42773 | 2017-036J | LEMUR 2 LUCYBRYCE | 2023 Sep 22 | 44041 | 2018-092C | OBJECT A | 2023 Sep 22 | 44731 | 2019-074U | STARLINK-1026 | 2023 Sep 22 | 46840 | 2020-079P | NUSAT-16 LISE | 2023 Sep 22 | 47473 | 2021-006BN | FLOCK 4S 35 | 2023 Sep 22 | 57494 | 2023-112B | FALCON 9 R/B | 2023 Sep 22 | 46929 | 2020-085A | ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B | 2023 Sep 21 | 44813 | 2019-081K | FLOCK 4P 2 | 2023 Sep 19 | 46830 | 2020-079D | NUSAT-15 KATHERINE | 2023 Sep 19 | 48891 | 2021-059N | SPACEBEENZ-8 | 2023 Sep 19 | 35754 | 2009-043C | DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D) | 2023 Sep 18 | 57863 | 2023-143B | SL-4 R/B | 2023 Sep 18 | 39069 | 2013-003B | KSLV-1 R/B | 2023 Sep 16 | 44227 | 2019-026C | ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B | 2023 Sep 15 | 48882 | 2021-059D | SPACEBEENZ-10 | 2023 Sep 15 | 48887 | 2021-059J | SPACEBEENZ-9 | 2023 Sep 15 | 44635 | 2019-069B | ELECTRON R/B | 2023 Sep 14 | 39026 | 2012-072A | KMS 3-2 | 2023 Sep 13 | 55702 | 2023-026H | STARLINK-30042 | 2023 Sep 13 | 48889 | 2021-059L | SPACEBEENZ-7 | 2023 Sep 12 | 50990 | 2022-002G | FOSSASAT2E3 | 2023 Sep 12 | 54237 | 2022-152A | TIANZHOU 5 | 2023 Sep 12 | 44739 | 2019-074AC | STARLINK-1034 | 2023 Sep 11 | 57695 | 2023-126C | ELECTRON R/B | 2023 Sep 11 | 57619 | 2023-119T | STARLINK-30220 | 2023 Sep 10 | 42771 | 2017-036G | LEMUR 2 SHAINAJOHL | 2023 Sep 8 | 44042 | 2018-092D | OBJECT B | 2023 Sep 8 | 52750 | 2022-057U | FOSSASAT2E11 | 2023 Sep 8 | 57478 | 2023-107X | STARLINK-30167 | 2023 Sep 7 | 39134 | 2013-015E | SOMP | 2023 Sep 6 | 42782 | 2017-036T | LEMUR 2 MCPEAKE | 2023 Sep 6 | 43697 | 2018-088H | LEMUR 2 CHANUSIAK | 2023 Sep 6 | 46831 | 2020-079E | NUSAT-14 HEDY | 2023 Sep 6 | 51071 | 2022-002CR | CAPELLA-8 (WHITNEY) | 2023 Sep 6 | 55740 | 2023-027A | DRAGON ENDEAVOUR 4 | 2023 Sep 4 | 56514 | 2023-065M | STARLINK-5343 | 2023 Sep 4 | 42774 | 2017-036K | LEMUR 2 KUNGFOO | 2023 Aug 30 | 51098 | 2022-003E | STORK-3 | 2023 Aug 29 | 51072 | 2022-002CS | CAPELLA-7 (WHITNEY) | 2023 Aug 26 |
Note on TIP Messages
Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.
The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, the location is meaningless in practical terms because the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.
TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.
Page information updated as available |