Feeling the Heat!
Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.
Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.
NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.
Anticipated Re-entries
Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.
Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz, Shenzhou or Dragon spacecraft returning from space station duties.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Predicted Date UTC |
Prediction Issued UTC |
49013 | 2021-013C | ORCA-7 | 2023 Jan 28 | 2023 Jan 26 | 43614 | 2018-070B | SURFSAT | 2023 Jan 29 | 2023 Jan 12 | 54802 | 2022-175AW | STARLINK-5426 | 2023 Jan 29 | 2023 Jan 5 | 43693 | 2018-088D | IRVINE01 | 2023 Jan 31 | 2023 Jan 26 | 43791 | 2018-099AK | CAPELLA-1 | 2023 Jan 31 | 2023 Jan 12 | 40913 | 2015-049Q | CZ-6 R/B | 2023 Feb 1 | 2023 Jan 19 | 45114 | 2019-071D | AEROCUBE 14A | 2023 Feb 3 | 2023 Jan 26 | 45118 | 2019-071H | AEROCUBE 15A | 2023 Feb 4 | 2023 Jan 26 | 49015 | 2021-013E | ORCA-6 | 2023 Feb 6 | 2023 Jan 5 | 43857 | 2018-104J | DAVINCI | 2023 Feb 8 | 2023 Jan 26 | 45116 | 2019-071F | AEROCUBE 14B | 2023 Feb 8 | 2023 Jan 26 | 45117 | 2019-071G | AEROCUBE 15B | 2023 Feb 9 | 2023 Jan 26 | 43615 | 2018-070C | CP-7 DAVE | 2023 Feb 12 | 2023 Jan 26 | 44354 | 2019-036R | PSAT 2 | 2023 Feb 15 | 2023 Jan 26 | 4166 | 1969-082J | SOICAL (CYLINDER) | 2023 Feb 17 | 2023 Jan 26 | 46776 | 2020-074AP | STARLINK-1946 | 2023 Feb 17 | 2023 Jan 26 | 54819 | 2022-176B | CZ-4B R/B | 2023 Feb 19 | 2023 Jan 26 | 45252 | 2020-014D | CZ-2D R/B | 2023 Feb 21 | 2023 Jan 26 | 11822 | 1980-044B | SL-3 R/B | 2023 Feb 22 | 2023 Jan 26 | 48935 | 2021-059BJ | SPACEBEE-88 | 2023 Feb 23 | 2023 Jan 19 | 37838 | 2011-058A | MEGHA-TROPIQUES | 2023 Feb 24 | 2023 Jan 5 | 48913 | 2021-059AL | CAPELLA-5 (WHITNEY) | 2023 Feb 24 | 2023 Jan 19 | 43744 | 2018-096AB | HIBER-1 | 2023 Feb 26 | 2023 Jan 26 | 45537 | 2020-025G | STARLINK-1353 | 2023 Feb 26 | 2023 Jan 26 | 47489 | 2021-006CE | CAPELLA-3 (WHITNEY) | 2023 Feb 26 | 2023 Jan 19 | 43729 | 2018-096L | KEPLER-1 (CASE) | 2023 Feb 27 | 2023 Jan 26 | 44348 | 2019-036K | OCULUS-ASR | 2023 Feb 27 | 2023 Jan 26 | 48939 | 2021-059BN | SPACEBEE-93 | 2023 Feb 27 | 2023 Jan 19 |
Recent TIP Messages
Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.
Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.
Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.
Orbital Focus shows the predicted impact point only when the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as +/-9000 km.
Table created: 2023 Jan 29, 01:47 UTC
Cat No & Designation |
Name (Space-Track) |
Predicted Date & Time UTC |
Lat, Long & Heading (10 km altitude) |
TIP Message Issued UTC |
55241 2022-159B | DRAGON CRS-26 DEB | 2023 Jan 21 18:28 ± 1 minutes | 4°.1 south, 72°.5 west northbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2023 Jan 21 18:54 | 49694 1982-092GP | COSMOS 1408 DEB | 2023 Jan 21 19:44 ± 33 minutes | | 2023 Jan 22 01:14 | 49535 1982-092Y | COSMOS 1408 DEB | 2023 Jan 24 03:00 ± 14 minutes | 4°.3 north, 126°.5 west northbound, ± 0.16 orbits | 2023 Jan 24 06:24 | 43791 2018-099AK | CAPELLA-1 | 2023 Jan 25 21:47 ± 33 minutes | | 2023 Jan 25 23:28 | 40306 2014-071B | CZ-2C R/B | 2023 Jan 21 15:12 ± 1 minutes | 30°.8 north, 22°.9 east northbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2023 Jan 21 15:50 |
Recent Re-entries
This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. The list is updated every few hours.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Date UTC |
41973 | 2017-008AB | FLOCK 3P 9 | 2023 Jan 27 | 41989 | 2017-008AT | FLOCK 3P 35 | 2023 Jan 27 | 42011 | 2017-008BR | FLOCK 3P 16 | 2023 Jan 27 | 42020 | 2017-008CA | FLOCK 3P 69 | 2023 Jan 27 | 42041 | 2017-008CX | FLOCK 3P 55 | 2023 Jan 27 | 43614 | 2018-070B | SURFSAT | 2023 Jan 27 | 44357 | 2019-036U | OBJECT U | 2023 Jan 27 | 53306 | 1998-067TR | YUZGU 8 | 2023 Jan 27 | 53311 | 1998-067TW | TSIOLKOVSKY-RYAZAN 1 | 2023 Jan 27 | 41966 | 2017-008U | FLOCK 3P 2 | 2023 Jan 25 | 41986 | 2017-008AQ | FLOCK 3P 36 | 2023 Jan 25 | 43791 | 2018-099AK | CAPELLA-1 | 2023 Jan 25 | 53771 | 1998-067UJ | JAGSAT 1 | 2023 Jan 22 | 30776 | 2007-006E | FALCONSAT 3 | 2023 Jan 21 | 40306 | 2014-071B | CZ-2C R/B | 2023 Jan 21 | 42023 | 2017-008CD | FLOCK 3P 32 | 2023 Jan 21 | 43892 | 2018-111S | FLOCK 3K 3 | 2023 Jan 21 | 42028 | 2017-008CJ | FLOCK 3P 65 | 2023 Jan 20 | 42029 | 2017-008CK | FLOCK 3P 50 | 2023 Jan 20 | 42034 | 2017-008CQ | FLOCK 3P 64 | 2023 Jan 20 | 42051 | 2017-008DH | FLOCK 3P 72 | 2023 Jan 19 | 42018 | 2017-008BY | FLOCK 3P 23 | 2023 Jan 18 | 43560 | 2018-046G | LEMUR 2 YUASA | 2023 Jan 18 | 43901 | 2018-111AB | FLOCK 3K 8 | 2023 Jan 17 | 53349 | 2022-090D | CZ-4B R/B | 2023 Jan 17 | 29712 | 2007-001D | PEHUENSAT 1 | 2023 Jan 16 | 41172 | 2015-077G | PSLV R/B | 2023 Jan 16 | 41609 | 2016-040L | FLOCK 2P 2 | 2023 Jan 16 | 41614 | 2016-040R | FLOCK 2P 12 | 2023 Jan 16 | 42032 | 2017-008CN | FLOCK 3P 47 | 2023 Jan 16 | 42039 | 2017-008CV | FLOCK 3P 15 | 2023 Jan 16 | 51509 | 1998-067TG | LIGHT-1 | 2023 Jan 16 | 41965 | 2017-008T | FLOCK 3P 4 | 2023 Jan 15 | 43902 | 2018-111AC | FLOCK 3K 7 | 2023 Jan 14 | 44365 | 2019-037A | PAINANI 1 | 2023 Jan 14 | 54036 | 2022-132B | OBJECT B | 2023 Jan 14 | 41972 | 2017-008AA | FLOCK 3P 12 | 2023 Jan 13 | 43559 | 2018-046F | LEMUR 2 ALEXANDER | 2023 Jan 13 | 43746 | 2018-096AD | LEMUR 2 VLADIMIR | 2023 Jan 13 | 54371 | 2022-159A | DRAGON CRS-26 | 2023 Jan 11 | 41964 | 2017-008S | FLOCK 3P 25 | 2023 Jan 10 | 42037 | 2017-008CT | FLOCK 3P 38 | 2023 Jan 10 | 47703 | 2021-015E | SPACEBEE-87 | 2023 Jan 10 | 41606 | 2016-040H | FLOCK 2P 6 | 2023 Jan 8 | 41975 | 2017-008AD | FLOCK 3P 11 | 2023 Jan 8 | 41959 | 2017-008M | FLOCK 3P 21 | 2023 Jan 7 | 41979 | 2017-008AH | FLOCK 3P 75 | 2023 Jan 7 | 41974 | 2017-008AC | FLOCK 3P 10 | 2023 Jan 6 | 41982 | 2017-008AL | FLOCK 3P 88 | 2023 Jan 6 | 10059 | 1977-047A | COSMOS 917 | 2023 Jan 4 | 42005 | 2017-008BK | FLOCK 3P 45 | 2023 Jan 4 | 43905 | 2018-111AF | FLOCK 3K 10 | 2023 Jan 4 | 47704 | 2021-015F | SPACEBEE-86 | 2023 Jan 4 | 47705 | 2021-015G | SPACEBEE-85 | 2023 Jan 4 | 41977 | 2017-008AF | FLOCK 3P 58 | 2023 Jan 3 | 42030 | 2017-008CL | FLOCK 3P 52 | 2023 Jan 3 | 43899 | 2018-111Z | FLOCK 3K 5 | 2023 Jan 3 | 47706 | 2021-015H | SPACEBEE-84 | 2023 Jan 2 | 42024 | 2017-008CE | FLOCK 3P 71 | 2022 Dec 31 | 44841 | 2019-087D | OBJECT D | 2022 Dec 31 |
Note on TIP Messages
Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.
The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, the location is meaningless in practical terms because the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.
TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.
Page information updated as available |