/nAnticipated and Recent Re-entries - eventually air drag, gravity or retro-fire mean that a spacecraft or satellite is no longer able to stay in orbit. It re-enters the atmosphere to be destroyed or make a safe landing.
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2024 Dec 14
Saturday, Day 349

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Feeling the Heat!

Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.

Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.

NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.


Anticipated Re-entries

Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.

Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz, Shenzhou or Dragon spacecraft returning from space station duties.

Table created: 2024 Dec 14, 06:47 UTC

Cat No Designation Name
(SpaceTrack)
Predicted
Date UTC
Prediction
Issued UTC
40305    2014-071AYAOGAN 232024 Dec 122024 Dec 12
54782    2022-175AASTARLINK-54372024 Dec 122024 Dec 9
44733    2019-074WSTARLINK-10282024 Dec 132024 Dec 5
45380    2020-019WSTARLINK-12072024 Dec 132024 Dec 5
45534    2020-025DSTARLINK-13412024 Dec 132024 Dec 5
44787    2019-077CKZ-1A R/B2024 Dec 142024 Dec 14
15494    1985-009ACOSMOS 16262024 Dec 142024 Dec 14
45562    2020-025AHSTARLINK-13542024 Dec 152024 Dec 5
45563    2020-025AJSTARLINK-13552024 Dec 152024 Dec 5
45680    2020-035ZSTARLINK-13952024 Dec 152024 Dec 5
46726    2020-073BJSTARLINK-18292024 Dec 152024 Dec 5
46768    2020-074AFSTARLINK-19182024 Dec 152024 Dec 5
46785    2020-074AYSTARLINK-18832024 Dec 152024 Dec 5
50160    2021-125ESTARLINK-32882024 Dec 152024 Dec 5
60958    1998-067WYOBJECT WY2024 Dec 152024 Dec 5
45049    2020-006FSTARLINK-11352024 Dec 152024 Dec 13
44743    2019-074AGSTARLINK-10382024 Dec 162024 Dec 5
47591    2021-009AVSTARLINK-19962024 Dec 162024 Dec 5
47761    2021-017ARSTARLINK-21792024 Dec 162024 Dec 5
47763    2021-017ATSTARLINK-21812024 Dec 162024 Dec 5
52533    2022-051ASTARLINK-39512024 Dec 162024 Dec 5
53865    2022-114AZSTARLINK-47852024 Dec 162024 Dec 12
52696    2022-053ASSTARLINK-40252024 Dec 162024 Dec 13
47668    2021-012BASTARLINK-20592024 Dec 172024 Dec 5
47875    2021-021RSTARLINK-23312024 Dec 172024 Dec 5
47990    2021-024PSTARLINK-23072024 Dec 172024 Dec 5
48302    2021-036ACSTARLINK-25562024 Dec 172024 Dec 12
50811    2022-001JSTARLINK-33472024 Dec 172024 Dec 12
52570    2022-051APSTARLINK-39242024 Dec 172024 Dec 12
52691    2022-053AMSTARLINK-39452024 Dec 172024 Dec 12
53281    2022-086ARSTARLINK-41822024 Dec 172024 Dec 12
59109    2024-043MOBJECT M2024 Dec 172024 Dec 5
52683    2022-053ADSTARLINK-40392024 Dec 172024 Dec 13
52481    2022-049AGSTARLINK-38422024 Dec 172024 Dec 13
49170    2021-082ASSTARLINK-30742024 Dec 172024 Dec 14
45662    2020-035FSTARLINK-14452024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
45762    2020-038AJSTARLINK-14992024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
46030    2020-055DSTARLINK-15342024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
46031    2020-055ESTARLINK-15442024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
47134    2020-088NSTARLINK-18442024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
47167    2020-088AXSTARLINK-18842024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
47526    2021-006DSKEPLER-14 (STELLA)2024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
47594    2021-009AYSTARLINK-19992024 Dec 182024 Dec 5
47918    2021-021BLSTARLINK-23982024 Dec 182024 Dec 5
47980    2021-024DSTARLINK-23122024 Dec 182024 Dec 5
50847    2022-001AWSTARLINK-33192024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
51730    2022-016SSTARLINK-35302024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
52261    2022-041ASTARLINK-38102024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
53133    2022-083BSTARLINK-41542024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
53428    2022-097ASSTARLINK-45402024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
55992    2023-042GSTARLINK-59622024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
61067    2024-164TSTARLINK-323682024 Dec 182024 Dec 12
45066    2020-006YSTARLINK-11452024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
47141    2020-088VSTARLINK-18542024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
47642    2021-012YSTARLINK-20202024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
47646    2021-012ACSTARLINK-20282024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
47811    2021-018AASTARLINK-23922024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
48322    2021-036AYSTARLINK-24772024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
48588    2021-041AMSTARLINK-22442024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
51107    2022-005DSTARLINK-33682024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
51982    2022-025ACSTARLINK-36502024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
52124    2022-029ANSTARLINK-36842024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
52381    2022-045BCSTARLINK-38032024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
52460    2022-049KSTARLINK-38652024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
53284    2022-086AUSTARLINK-41722024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
53625    2022-104APSTARLINK-46032024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
53714    2022-107QSTARLINK-46882024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
53862    2022-114AWSTARLINK-47922024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
53989    2022-125ABSTARLINK-51152024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
56033    2023-042AZSTARLINK-57842024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
57103    2023-090CSTARLINK-61232024 Dec 192024 Dec 12
59144    2024-043AYOBJECT AY2024 Dec 192024 Dec 5
44970    2020-001BJSTARLINK-10932024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
45548    2020-025TSTARLINK-13782024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
46062    2020-055AMSTARLINK-15742024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
46071    2020-055AWSTARLINK-15382024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
46132    2020-057RSTARLINK-16302024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
46692    2020-073YSTARLINK-17912024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
47174    2020-088BESTARLINK-18912024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
47372    2021-005ZSTARLINK-20892024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
47740    2021-017USTARLINK-21522024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
47869    2021-021KSTARLINK-23242024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
47891    2021-021AHSTARLINK-23512024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
48002    2021-024ABSTARLINK-22652024 Dec 202024 Dec 5
48026    2021-024BBSTARLINK-22782024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
48335    2021-036BMSTARLINK-24412024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
48429    2021-040BSTARLINK-27492024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
48585    2021-041AJSTARLINK-22402024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
48587    2021-041ALSTARLINK-22422024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
49412    2021-104ESTARLINK-31442024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
53937    2022-119BDSTARLINK-47652024 Dec 202024 Dec 12
60467    2024-148KCZ-4B R/B2024 Dec 202024 Dec 13
15244    1984-093ELEASAT 2 PKM2024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
44915    2020-001BSTARLINK-10842024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
44959    2020-001AXSTARLINK-10762024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
45099    2020-006BHSTARLINK-11862024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
45401    2020-019ATSTARLINK-12562024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
45743    2020-038PSTARLINK-14832024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
46041    2020-055QSTARLINK-15802024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
46069    2020-055AUSTARLINK-15332024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
46140    2020-057ZSTARLINK-15942024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
46364    2020-062ARSTARLINK-17632024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
46788    2020-074BBSTARLINK-19292024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47170    2020-088BASTARLINK-18872024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47402    2021-005BFSTARLINK-21242024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47635    2021-012RSTARLINK-20122024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47666    2021-012AYSTARLINK-20572024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47795    2021-018JSTARLINK-23472024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47842    2021-018BHSTARLINK-24342024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47881    2021-021XSTARLINK-23392024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47902    2021-021AUSTARLINK-23622024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
47913    2021-021BFSTARLINK-23742024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
48030    2021-024BFSTARLINK-22682024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
48281    2021-036FSTARLINK-25202024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
48296    2021-036WSTARLINK-25462024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
48313    2021-036APSTARLINK-25412024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
48394    2021-038ATSTARLINK-25732024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
48463    2021-040AMSTARLINK-26892024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
48660    2021-044YSTARLINK-26882024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
48689    2021-044BDSTARLINK-26172024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
52701    2022-053AXSTARLINK-40032024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
53534    2022-101HSTARLINK-44882024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
54769    2022-175MSTARLINK-54042024 Dec 212024 Dec 12
45191    2020-012PSTARLINK-12362024 Dec 222024 Dec 5
46682    2020-073NSTARLINK-17762024 Dec 222024 Dec 12
46772    2020-074AKSTARLINK-19362024 Dec 222024 Dec 12
47175    2020-088BFSTARLINK-18952024 Dec 222024 Dec 5
47620    2021-012ASTARLINK-15282024 Dec 222024 Dec 12
47664    2021-012AWSTARLINK-20542024 Dec 222024 Dec 5
47860    2021-021ASTARLINK-22582024 Dec 222024 Dec 12
47878    2021-021USTARLINK-23352024 Dec 222024 Dec 5
47889    2021-021AFSTARLINK-23492024 Dec 222024 Dec 12
47892    2021-021AJSTARLINK-23522024 Dec 222024 Dec 5
47914    2021-021BGSTARLINK-23752024 Dec 222024 Dec 12
47998    2021-024XSTARLINK-22962024 Dec 222024 Dec 12
48645    2021-044HSTARLINK-27332024 Dec 222024 Dec 12
44766    2019-074BFSTARLINK-10612024 Dec 232024 Dec 5
45740    2020-038LSTARLINK-14792024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
46748    2020-074KSTARLINK-19102024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
46760    2020-074XSTARLINK-18962024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
46779    2020-074ASSTARLINK-17982024 Dec 232024 Dec 5
47136    2020-088QSTARLINK-18462024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
47151    2020-088AFSTARLINK-18642024 Dec 232024 Dec 5
47163    2020-088ATSTARLINK-18782024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
47165    2020-088AVSTARLINK-18802024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
47177    2020-088BHSTARLINK-19072024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
47768    2021-017AYSTARLINK-21892024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
47769    2021-017AZSTARLINK-21922024 Dec 232024 Dec 5
47866    2021-021GSTARLINK-23202024 Dec 232024 Dec 5
47871    2021-021MSTARLINK-23272024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
47991    2021-024QSTARLINK-22792024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
48020    2021-024AVSTARLINK-22942024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
51145    2022-005ATSTARLINK-33652024 Dec 232024 Dec 12
59138    2024-043ASOBJECT AS2024 Dec 232024 Dec 5
47124    2020-088CSTARLINK-17852024 Dec 242024 Dec 12
47640    2021-012WSTARLINK-20182024 Dec 242024 Dec 5
47781    2021-017BMSTARLINK-22232024 Dec 242024 Dec 5
47876    2021-021SSTARLINK-23322024 Dec 242024 Dec 5
47880    2021-021WSTARLINK-23372024 Dec 242024 Dec 5
47905    2021-021AXSTARLINK-23652024 Dec 242024 Dec 12
47909    2021-021BBSTARLINK-23692024 Dec 242024 Dec 12
47985    2021-024JSTARLINK-23082024 Dec 242024 Dec 12
47994    2021-024TSTARLINK-22902024 Dec 242024 Dec 12
48013    2021-024ANSTARLINK-22432024 Dec 242024 Dec 12
57536    2023-116CCZ-2C R/B2024 Dec 242024 Dec 12
59139    2024-043ATOBJECT AT2024 Dec 242024 Dec 5
47639    2021-012VSTARLINK-20162024 Dec 252024 Dec 5
47645    2021-012ABSTARLINK-20272024 Dec 252024 Dec 5
47743    2021-017XSTARLINK-21572024 Dec 252024 Dec 12
47775    2021-017BFSTARLINK-21982024 Dec 252024 Dec 5
47867    2021-021HSTARLINK-23212024 Dec 252024 Dec 5
48476    2021-040BASTARLINK-27232024 Dec 252024 Dec 12
52582    2022-051AYSTARLINK-38862024 Dec 252024 Dec 12
52624    2022-052ACSTARLINK-40092024 Dec 252024 Dec 12
54072    2022-136XSTARLINK-51442024 Dec 252024 Dec 12
62113    2024-221CZQ-2E R/B2024 Dec 252024 Dec 12
45089    2020-006AXSTARLINK-11362024 Dec 262024 Dec 12
46361    2020-062ANSTARLINK-17222024 Dec 262024 Dec 5
46752    2020-074PSTARLINK-19212024 Dec 262024 Dec 12
46793    2020-074BGSTARLINK-19412024 Dec 262024 Dec 12
47593    2021-009AXSTARLINK-19982024 Dec 262024 Dec 12
47601    2021-009BFSTARLINK-20062024 Dec 262024 Dec 12
47674    2021-012BGSTARLINK-20672024 Dec 262024 Dec 5
47877    2021-021TSTARLINK-23332024 Dec 262024 Dec 5
47989    2021-024NSTARLINK-23052024 Dec 262024 Dec 5
53617    2022-104AFSTARLINK-46012024 Dec 262024 Dec 12
54765    2022-175HSTARLINK-54662024 Dec 262024 Dec 12
61263    2024-174FOBJECT F2024 Dec 262024 Dec 5
28385    2004-034BATLAS CENTAUR R/B2024 Dec 272024 Dec 5
47864    2021-021ESTARLINK-23042024 Dec 272024 Dec 12
47912    2021-021BESTARLINK-23722024 Dec 272024 Dec 5
47977    2021-024ASTARLINK-20872024 Dec 272024 Dec 5
45178    2020-012ASTARLINK-11382024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
45734    2020-038ESTARLINK-14682024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
45767    2020-038APSTARLINK-15112024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
46122    2020-057FSTARLINK-16042024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
46334    2020-062KSTARLINK-17252024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
46671    2020-073BSTARLINK-17152024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
46767    2020-074AESTARLINK-19172024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
47128    2020-088GSTARLINK-18372024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
47138    2020-088SSTARLINK-18502024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
47551    2021-009DSTARLINK-19382024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
47579    2021-009AHSTARLINK-19812024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
47774    2021-017BESTARLINK-21972024 Dec 282024 Dec 5
47865    2021-021FSTARLINK-23102024 Dec 282024 Dec 5
47979    2021-024CSTARLINK-23252024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
47982    2021-024FSTARLINK-23172024 Dec 282024 Dec 12
46684    2020-073QSTARLINK-17802024 Dec 292024 Dec 12
47139    2020-088TSTARLINK-18522024 Dec 292024 Dec 5
47144    2020-088YSTARLINK-18572024 Dec 292024 Dec 12
47585    2021-009APSTARLINK-19892024 Dec 292024 Dec 5
47607    2021-009BMSTARLINK-20252024 Dec 292024 Dec 12
47725    2021-017DSTARLINK-21252024 Dec 292024 Dec 12
47726    2021-017ESTARLINK-21262024 Dec 292024 Dec 12
47917    2021-021BKSTARLINK-23972024 Dec 292024 Dec 5


Recent TIP Messages

Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.

Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.

Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.

Orbital Focus shows the predicted impact point only when the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as +/-9000 km.

Table created: 2024 Dec 14, 06:47 UTC

Cat No &
Designation
Name
(Space-Track)
Predicted
Date & Time UTC
Lat, Long & Heading
(10 km altitude)
TIP Message
Issued UTC
62087
2024-219G
ELECTRON R/B2024 Dec 7 20:49
± 1 minutes
39°.9 north, 59°.9 west
southbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2024 Dec 7 22:36
55509
2023-017B
FALCON 9 R/B2024 Dec 10 23:05
± 1 minutes
21°.6 north, 66°.6 west
southbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2024 Dec 10 23:06
54782
2022-175AA
STARLINK-54372024 Dec 12 01:39
± 60 minutes
2024 Dec 12 06:15
52696
2022-053AS
STARLINK-40252024 Dec 16 17:09
± 900 minutes
2024 Dec 13 16:56
52683
2022-053AD
STARLINK-40392024 Dec 17 00:03
± 900 minutes
2024 Dec 13 23:32
52481
2022-049AG
STARLINK-38422024 Dec 17 06:07
± 1200 minutes
2024 Dec 13 05:54
49170
2021-082AS
STARLINK-30742024 Dec 17 23:40
± 1140 minutes
2024 Dec 14 00:03
48912
2021-059AK
ION SCV-0032024 Dec 8 22:43
± 1 minutes
34°.9 north, 82°.7 east
northbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2024 Dec 8 23:53
48387
2021-038AL
STARLINK-26002024 Dec 7 13:31
± 2 minutes
42°.9 north, 79°.9 east
southbound, ± 0.02 orbits
2024 Dec 7 18:11
47398
2021-005BB
STARLINK-21202024 Dec 9 05:25
± 60 minutes
2024 Dec 9 10:02
45785
2020-038BH
STARLINK-15122024 Dec 10 11:57
± 2 minutes
34°.9 south, 86°.4 east
northbound, ± 0.02 orbits
2024 Dec 10 16:56
45049
2020-006F
STARLINK-11352024 Dec 15 06:44
± 300 minutes
2024 Dec 14 06:40
44787
2019-077C
KZ-1A R/B2024 Dec 14 00:49
± 1 minutes
37°.7 north, 50°.8 west
southbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2024 Dec 14 04:43
44764
2019-074BD
STARLINK-10592024 Dec 8 03:09
± 1 minutes
38°.9 south, 167°.7 east
northbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2024 Dec 8 08:58
40305
2014-071A
YAOGAN 232024 Dec 12 18:29
± 1 minutes
38°.8 north, 15°.2 west
northbound, ± 0.01 orbits
2024 Dec 12 20:43
15494
1985-009A
COSMOS 16262024 Dec 14 07:05
± 26 minutes
2024 Dec 14 05:24


Recent Re-entries

This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. Sometimes the date shown indicates when the object was first noticed as "missing from orbit", re-entry may have occurred at least one day earlier.

Table created: 2024 Dec 14, 06:47 UTC

Cat No Designation Name (SpaceTrack) Date UTC
 
54782   2022-175AASTARLINK-54372024 Dec 12
40305   2014-071AYAOGAN 232024 Dec 12
60953   1998-067WTOBJECT WT2024 Dec 11
55509   2023-017BFALCON 9 R/B2024 Dec 11
41602   2016-040DGHGSAT-D2024 Dec 11
56967   2023-084AMMUSAT12024 Dec 11
56862   2023-081SOBJECT S2024 Dec 11
45785   2020-038BHSTARLINK-15122024 Dec 10
56870   2023-081AAOBJECT AA2024 Dec 10
46319   2020-061AZKEPLER-2 (TARS)2024 Dec 10
56863   2023-081TOBJECT T2024 Dec 10
56868   2023-081YOBJECT Y2024 Dec 10
56867   2023-081XOBJECT X2024 Dec 10
56854   2023-081JOBJECT J2024 Dec 10
56848   2023-081COBJECT C2024 Dec 10
47398   2021-005BBSTARLINK-21202024 Dec 9
48912   2021-059AKION SCV-0032024 Dec 9
44764   2019-074BDSTARLINK-10592024 Dec 8
47968   2021-023DMYRIOTA 7 (TYVAK-0152)2024 Dec 7
48387   2021-038ALSTARLINK-26002024 Dec 7
56857   2023-081MOBJECT M2024 Dec 7
62087   2024-219GELECTRON R/B2024 Dec 7
43760   2018-099CELYUSIUM/LOWER FREE FLYE2024 Dec 6
55259   2023-007MOBJECT M2024 Dec 6
52748   2022-057SNUSAT-30 (MARGHERITA)2024 Dec 6
57963   2023-150BQASED R/B2024 Dec 6
62191   2024-228BKZ-1A R/B2024 Dec 5
45065   2020-006XSTARLINK-11392024 Dec 5
45782   2020-038BESTARLINK-14982024 Dec 4
58763   2024-010BH-2A R/B2024 Dec 3
60954   1998-067WUOBJECT WU2024 Dec 3
47939   2021-022HOBJECT H2024 Dec 3
61502   1998-067XADORA2024 Dec 3
61792   2024-201AELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B2024 Dec 3
56227   2023-084BLSKYKRAFT-3B2024 Dec 3
52738   2022-057GPLANETUM12024 Dec 3
46754   2020-074RSTARLINK-19232024 Dec 2
57319   2023-097AZHUQUE-2 R/B2024 Nov 30
55134   2023-003BOBJECT B2024 Nov 30

Note on TIP Messages

Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.

The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, the location is meaningless in practical terms because the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.

TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.


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